Malcolm Penn – Future Horizons
Future Horizons has come up with an 8% forecast for the semiconductor market this year.
“Our forecast is for 8% semiconductor market growth in 2014,” said Malcolm Penn CEO of Future Horizons at IFS2014 in London earlier this week, adding “if the economy continues to improve, the room for upside potential is huge … with all of the ramifications this entails.”
Since the economy is expected to improve, according to Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, who raised the IMF worldwide GDP forecast to 3.7% earlier this week, then this could be a very good year for chips.
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Penn said that the downside risk to the 8% forecast was 4% and the upside potential is 14%.
“The balance of probabilities favours a sustained semiconductor market recovery,” said Penn, “confidence should start to improve my the mid-year.”
“For 2015 there’s an 18% potential growth if the current recovery trends sustain,” said Penn, adding “it could be even higher.”
That trusty industry bellwether, the pure-play foundry industry, is forecast by IC Insights to grow 14% this year. For the market as a whole, IC Insights is forecasting 7% growth.
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