Business All 2013 pure-play foundry sales growth is coming from 28nm.
2013/09/17All the increase in pure-play foundry sales in 2013 is expected to be due to 28nm devices, says ICInsights.
Although forecast to represent 78% of total pure-play foundry sales this year, the pure-play foundry market for processes worse than 28nm is expected to decline 3% in 2013.
In contrast, the 2013 28nm pure-play foundry market is forecast to triple this year.
Not only is essentially all the of pure-play foundry market growth forecast to come from leading-edge production, most of the profits that will be realized are also expected to come from 28nm.
TSMC had almost $1.5 billion in 28nm sales in 2Q13 and is forecast to have about $6.33 billion in sales of 28nm devices for all of 2013, over 3x the $2.10 billion worth of 28nm product the company sold in 2012.
As a result, TSMC is expected to hold a 78% share of the pure-play foundry industry’s $8.10 billion of 28nm sales this year.
Before GlobalFoundries entered the foundry market, TSMC was by far the technology leader among the major pure-play foundries.
For 2013, 51% of TSMC’s revenue is expected to be from 45nm and better processing.
As expected, with GlobalFoundries’ fabs having a large portion of their capacity dedicated to producing AMD’s MPUs over the past few years, its processing technology is skewed toward leading-edge feature sizes. In 2013, 50% of GlobalFoundries’ sales are forecast to be from production on 45nm and better processes.
In 2012, only TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and UMC had significant sales of 45nm and better technology.
In 2013, TSMC is expected to have about 4x the dollar volume sales at 45nm and better processes compared to GlobalFoundries and about 12x the 45nm and better sales of UMC ($10.33 billion for TSMC, $2.53 billion for GlobalFoundries, and $0.89 billion for UMC).
In contrast, SMIC only entered initial production of its 45nm technology in early 2012, more than three years after TSMC first put its 45nm process into production and is forecast to sell only $0.22 billion of 45nm and better technology this year.
In fact, only 22% of UMC’s 2013 revenue and 11% of SMIC’s 2013 sales are forecast to come from devices having 45nm and better feature sizes, which is why their revenue per wafer is so low as compared to TSMC and GlobalFoundries.
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